Iran’s regime may need to lean more on pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen to confront Israel. The losses to Hezbollah are now so large that Iran will be forced to contend with increasing threats to Israel from other fronts. The Iranian regime under its former president and under the IRGC worked to create a multi-front threat to Israel. However, the front in Gaza has been greatly weakened and the front in Lebanon could collapse.
Iran has been prodding the Iraqis and Houthis to strike at Israel increasingly in recent weeks. The Iraqi militias, for instance, have targeted areas in the Jordan valley, the Golan, and Eilat. The Houthis have twice tried to target Israel, once on September 26 and and another on September 15. This illustrates how Iran is using these groups to make up for the pressure Israel is putting on Hezbollah.
Iranian-backed proxies
The Iranian-backed militias in Iraq include a large number of different groups. These are often gathered under the umbrella of a group called the Population Mobilization Units, or Hashd al-Shaabi. When they attack Israel they call themselves the Islamic Resistance.
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The militias in Iraq include a large number of members but they are not very sophisticated. They have access to drones and ballistic missiles provided by Iran. They likely also have access to cruise missiles and other weapons. They have vowed for years to help support Hezbollah by moving forces to Syria, meaning they could send forces to Lebanon or towards the Golan.
The Iraqi militias have strength in numbers. They likely have up to 100,000 men under arms. Many of these are not linked to the more quality units that are close to Iran’s IRGC. Therefore the more dangerous units are only a few militias with thousands of men each. These include Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, and Asaib Ahl al-Haq. Kataib Hezbollah, for instance, used drones to kill three Americans in Jordan in January.
The group has also targeted Saudi Arabia in past years, and was also involved in plots to target US forces. The Iraqi militias have carried out more than 100 attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria since after the Hamas attack on Israel.
Differences with Houthis
The Houthis, by contrast, have more serious weapons systems and appear more disciplined than the Iraqi militias. They are further away from Israel, at some 1,500 miles, and they don’t have a land corridor to reach the borders of Israel. However, they have shown increasing willingness to target Tel Aviv and areas in central Israel using long-range ballistic missiles. They also have long-range cruise missiles and drones. They used a drone to target Tel Aviv in July, killing one person, and have alsop targeted Eilat in recent months.
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According to reports, they have increased their targeting of ships in the Red Sea, including flying projectiles near US warships, in recent days. This is likely part of their support for Hezbollah.
If Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has been killed, Iran will need to lean on the Iraqi militias and Houthis increasingly in future months and years. This is because Nasrallah was a key part of Iran’s strategy in the region and he coordinated with Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hamas, and other groups. His loss will be felt by Iran’s militia network throughout the region.
