The Houthis attacked Israel on September 15 on the anniversary of the Abraham Accords, and at 6:32am, symbolically almost the same time as the October 7 attack.
Iran has a new Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Majid Takht Ravanchi. He is pushing for closer ties with the Gulf countries, according to Iranian state media. This push comes on the four year anniversary of the Abraham Accords. The Accords were signed in Washington on September 15. They led to peace between Israel and Bahrain and Israel and the United Arab Emirates. In December of 2020, Morocco also signed a normalization agreement of ties with Israel.
Iran has always opposed the Abraham Accords. It especially does not want Israel’s ties with Bahrain and it is concerned about Israel increasing any kind of agreements in the Gulf. For instance Iran sought to derail any expansion of the Accords to Oman and it does not want Israel-Saudi normalization.
The October 7 attack by Hamas was likely part of Iran’s response. Iran backed the attack. Hamas leaders are hosted in Qatar. Doha did not join the Accords, despite being a close US non-NATO ally. It is worth recalling that back in 2017 Saudi Arabia led the UAE, Bahrain and other countries to cut ties with Doha. Although there was reconciliation, it’s possible that Doha was pleased to get back at the other Gulf states for the 2017 crisis.
Therefore, Hamas can be seen as a tool of a variety of enemies of normalization. For instance, Ankara withdraw its ambassador to the US and Israel over the US decision to move the embassy to Jerusalem in 2018. Ankara also tried to derail the Accords.
It is in this context that one must understand Iran’s current outreach to the Gulf. Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian “is eager to continuously interact and consult with the eight Arab countries bordering the Persian Gulf,” Iran’s IRNA reports. According to IRNA, “Takht Ravanchi made the comments in a joint meeting with the heads of the representatives of the Persian Gulf countries in Tehran on Sunday.”
Sunday, September 15 was the four year anniversary of the Abraham Accords. Iran is using this symbolic date to try to create its own initiative in the Gulf and reduce Israel’s emerging ties with these countries. Tehran wants Israel isolated and at war in a long war of attrition with Hamas in Gaza, in order to harm Israel’s ties in the region. This is why Iran is mobilizing so many proxies against Israel. The Houthis attacked Israel on September 15 on the anniversary of the Abraham Accords. They attacked at 6:32am, symbolically almost the same time as the October 7 attack.
Iran’s symbolic timing
Iran believes in symbols and timing. Iran worked to reconcile with Saudi Arabia, in a deal brokered by China, in order to use reconciliation against possible Israel ties. Iran also wanted the Houthis free to attack Israel and it has used Saudi ties to guarantee that. Saudi Arabia is not pleased with the Houthis being put on steroids by Iran.
But Riyadh is not ready yet to derail reconciliation. Iran is also reaching around behind Saudi to Cairo to increase ties. Along with Turkey, Iran hopes the Arab League will also work to condemn Israel and isolate Jerusalem.
Iran’s president used his first trip abroad to go to Iraq. Iraq is keen to help normalize Syria-Turkey ties and Baghdad played a key role in normalizing Iran-Saudi ties. Therefore, the Iranian president sees Iraq as a gateway to the Gulf. Iran already has close ties in the Gulf with Qatar and Oman. Kuwait, which suffered in the Iran-Iraq role in the 1980s is keen to stay out of any crisis this time. Kuwait is also very hostile to Israel. As such Iran already has inroads in Kuwait, Oman and Qatar. Iran also works with the Houthis in Yemen.
“The geographical proximity, bonds and commonalities between the eight Persian Gulf countries provide a suitable ground for dialogue and consultation, and it is necessary for them to have continuous cooperation and coordination on issues of interest,” the Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Majid Takht Ravanchi indicated, according to IRNA.
“By enumerating some common issues between the Persian Gulf littoral states such as economic cooperation, transit, environment, shipping, combating drug trafficking, coast guard, Takht Ravanchi said all these countries have the same views on these issues, and therefore, need constructive dialogue and consultations,” the report noted.
Meanwhile, Iran’s president’s trip to Iraq opened a new “chapter,” IRNA said in a separate report. Iran also wants to work on ties with Europe and to get around US sanctions. Iran’s foreign minister also talked up support for “resistance” against Israel in light of the Iraq trip. Iranian militias operate in Iraq and use Iraq to threaten Israel. Iranian militias also operate in Syria.“
A US military base in Kharab al-Jeer, located in the northern suburbs of the eastern Syria, has reportedly come under rocket attacks. The Lebanese TV network Al-Mayadeen on Sunday night citing sources said that several rockets were fired at the American military base in Syria’s Al-Hasakah Governorate,” IRNA reported on September 16. It is likely that Iran will increase threats to the US in Iraq and Syria as part of its wider regional game plan.
